|
Criminal Case May Cramp Zuma Presidency |
| Publication |
Cape Argus |
| Date | 2009-01-20 |
| Reporter | Michael Georgy |
|
Web Link |
The revived corruption case against South Africa's presidential front-runner
Jacob Zuma will hinder his ability to govern and increase the chance he shifts
closer to the leftist allies who form his power base.
Despite a court's decision last week to overturn a ruling that threw out graft
charges, Zuma is still expected to become president after a general election due
in April because of the dominance of his ruling African National Congress.
But the revival of the charges, which Zuma believes were politically motivated,
has dealt another blow to his image while the ANC tries to fend off an
unprecedented challenge from a breakaway party.
"The corruption case will shadow him (Zuma) and will effectively constrain his
ability to govern at home and project South Africa's influence abroad," said
Mark Schroeder, a southern Africa expert at risk analysis company Stratfor.
Aside from trying to improve his reputation, Zuma will be under growing pressure
to deliver on promises made to millions of impoverished black South Africans
still waiting for the ANC's help 15 years after the end of apartheid.
The ANC leader owes his position to alliances with powerful unions and the
Communist Party as well as populist appeal.
Meanwhile, business and investors will be wary of any shift to the left at a
testing time for Africa's biggest economy, where growth had been slowing even
before the impact of the global financial crisis.
A new trial would leave Zuma in the precarious position of sharing his time
between the dock and the president's office while trying to strike the right
balance.
Zuma's decision to take the case to South Africa's highest court guarantees a
protracted legal battle that can only add to fears that Zuma could be too
preoccupied by clearing his name to tackle South
Africa's glaring problems *1.
One of the world's highest rates of violent crime - murders and rapes are common
- is piling pressure on the government to make the streets safe before it hosts
the 2010 soccer World Cup, an event it hopes will boost the country's
international status.
The murky future *2 is an extra worry for
increasingly risk averse foreign investors. The rand currency fell to a
one-month low as investors worried about the impact of the court ruling against
Zuma.
"It will take some time for the contours of a Zuma presidency to become clear,
and this political uncertainty may encourage market volatility," said
international political consultancy Eurasia Group in a research note.
In the seemingly unlikely event the ANC decides Zuma is too much of a liability,
state President Kgalema Motlanthe would seem the
logical replacement. He was appointed caretaker president when the ANC
pushed Zuma's rival Thabo Mbeki from office after a court suggested he meddled
in Zuma's graft case.
Motlanthe lacks the charisma that helped Zuma get through one crisis after
another. But the steady and measured
former trade unionist is seen as someone who could heal ANC wounds.
"Motlanthe has run an upright ship, hasn't made mistakes that can stick to him,
so he could come out of this looking clean and a viable alternative should Zuma
be prevented from standing as the ANC's candidate," said Schroeder. - Reuters
Related Articles