The National Prosecuting Auth-ority (NPA) is widely expected to drop the corruption charges against African National Congress (ANC) president Jacob Zuma today in a decision that is likely to have a profound effect on SA’s body politic.
The NPA will have the unenviable task of explaining why, after almost a decade, it no longer wants to continue with its case.

Zuma faces 16 charges: one of racketeering, one of money laundering, two of corruption and 12 of fraud.

All eyes will be on the prosecutions body as it explains the decision, amid leaks that Zuma’s political enemies were fingered in tapped telephone conversations.

Zuma’s lawyers reportedly provided the NPA with evidence of a political conspiracy involving former president Thabo Mbeki, former NPA head Bulelani Ngcuka and former Scorpions boss Leonard McCarthy.

In a stunning reversal of political fortunes, Mbeki and Ngcuka could well face investigation if the NPA publicly acknowledges political meddling.

Relations between Zuma and the NPA have shifted over the past few months, with insiders saying the state is no longer prepared to prosecute him “at all costs”.

However, today’s decision can be linked directly to Zuma’s submissions during the representation process.

In terms of the constitution, the NPA can review a decision to prosecute after taking representations from the accused, the complainant and any other interested parties. Details of the representations remain sketchy as parties to the talks fear jeopardising the process.

Opposition political parties have brushed aside recent reports of political conspiracy against Zuma, saying that the NPA must deal with the merits of the allegations.

While the media has speculated that the state is likely to drop the charges because the NPA does not have a “winnable case” or because Zuma made a compelling case that a political plot inspired his prosecution, sources believe that it will probably be a combination of reasons that informs the decision.

The state’s case against Zuma rests on his relationship with his former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik. During the representations, prosecutors heard for the first time Zuma’s version of his relationship with Shaik, who was sentenced to 15 years in jail for corruption in the multibillion-rand arms deal.

Zuma’s relationship with Shaik dates back to when the two were bound by struggle ties in the ANC underground before the party was unbanned in 1990.

Zuma has consistently maintained that his relationship with Shaik was not corrupt.

For Zuma, today’s decision may lift a cloud over the ANC’s election campaign, and help smooth his path to the Union Buildings after the April 22 general election.

Opposition parties have campaigned on an anti-Zuma ticket, saying that he should step aside from the presidential race until he is cleared of corruption charges.

The ANC is expected to convene a press conference shortly after the NPA’s announcement to react to the decision.

With acknowledgements to Hajra Omarjee and Business Day.