With days to go before Jacob Zuma's prosecutors announce whether they will drop corruption charges against him, the game of legal and political chicken between the ANC president, the state and former president Thabo Mbeki is heading towards a climax.

Should the NPA be unconvinced by Zuma's explanation of the political motivation behind the charges against him, his only option will be to prove his claims in open court.

Acting National Director of Public Prosecutions Advocate Mokotedi Mpshe indicated on Friday that he would "apply his mind" to the submissions made behind closed doors by Zuma's legal representatives and others from Friday.

The next two weeks are therefore crucial to determine whether Zuma will become president as an accused. If so, chances are he will soon after his inauguration have no choice but to drag the name of his predecessor - and possibly the prosecuting authority itself - through the mud in open court.

Legal experts told Weekend Argus that should the NPA decide against permanently discontinuing Zuma's prosecution on 16 charges of fraud, corruption, racketeering and tax evasion, the ANC president's lawyers and the ruling party will not be able to take that decision on review.

Nearly 10 years after the arms deal was concluded in 1999, Zuma will then be forced to give credence to his earlier "dark hints" that he could spill the beans on the full extent of wider impropriety in the arms acquisition process.

Perceptions that the stand-off between Zuma and Mbeki was reaching a peak were also fuelled by revelations that some of the political conspiracy could be supported by "embarrassing" recordings of conversations between top justice officials about their drive to charge Zuma.

According to a Pietermaritzburg High Court order Zuma will have to file an application for a permanent stay of prosecution by mid-May, just a fortnight after his expected swearing in as president of the country. This application will be made days after Zuma is scheduled to argue in the Constitutional Court that his prosecution is invalid because the NPA failed to invite his representations on the charges against him.

The permanent-stay application has been set down for argument on August 25. If he hopes to be successful in this application, he will have to provide evidence to back his oft-repeated allegations that the charges against him were politically motivated. In up to half a dozen of the legal submissions Zuma's lawyers made throughout his battle with the state, he had hinted that he had information of a wider conspiracy.

News leaked last week that the NPA was considering dropping the charges ahead of the scheduled court dates, has angered the ANC, who said they were hoping for a credible process to clear the name of its president ahead of his expected election next month.

It is understood that the leaks of the story to the media have also served to harden Mpshe's attitude and have placed him under pressure from opposition parties to continue with Zuma's prosecution.

Meanwhile, reports in the media have speculated that Zuma's latest submissions again raise serious questions about Mbeki's involvement in the multi-billion-rand arms deal, but this has been greeted with scorn by sources close to the former president.

Mbeki last year denied media reports that a German investigation of corruption in the corvette deal had allegedly found evidence he received a kick-back of R30 million.

The NPA has, however, never managed to obtain a statement from Mbeki about his alleged meetings with Thint, which received the contract for the combat suites for the corvettes, of which he has repeatedly claimed he has no recollection. The then ambassador to France Barbara Masekela has apparently provided a statement to Zuma's legal team, confirming that she was present at the December 1998 meeting.

In a document before the Supreme Court of Appeal, the state revealed last year that it had been interacting with Mbeki over its arms deal inquiry since 2004, but had never managed to obtain an affidavit from him. Mbeki was chairman of the sub-committee of the cabinet that approved the arms-acquisition packages during his pre-1999 term as deputy president.

The underlying threat in the endgame between Zuma and Mbeki, is however, the possibility of revealing a range of beneficiaries close to the former president, that would rival if not exceed the patronage that allegedly accrued to Zuma and his aides in the arms deal.