ANC leaders fear: Zuma will lose appeal, Mbeki will quit ANC,
Phumzile will join COPE
This weekend marks another dramatic
watershed in South African politics. As the ANC prepares
to launch its election manifesto in East London today with another dig at the
transformation of the judiciary, its president Jacob Zuma is believed to have
resigned himself to losing Monday's
all-important Supreme Court of Appeal decision *1.
The National Prosecuting Authority has appealed against Judge Chris Nicholson's
September ruling, which prevented it from charging Zuma and led to the ANC
deposing Thabo Mbeki as president, which in turn led to the resignation of the
deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, and the formation of the Congress of
the People, made up largely of ANC dissidents.
Yesterday, the NPA admitted that if it
wins the appeal, it will recharge Zuma.
ANC leaders fear Mlambo-Ngcuka is on the verge of formally
defecting to COPE this weekend and that Mbeki will formally retire from politics
on Monday and play no part in the ANC's election campaign, indirectly boosting
COPE as a result.
Speaking to the Saturday Star yesterday, Mbeki's spokesperson Mukoni Ratshitanga
confirmed the former president had every
intention of commenting on the court's ruling after it was delivered on Monday
*2.
Sources close to Zuma told the Saturday Star that
neither he nor his legal team would be present at
Monday's crucial Supreme Court of Appeal judgment because "nobody enjoys losing
in public".
Instead, Zuma is expected to watch the ruling on television at his Forest Town,
Joburg, home. The ANC, however, will be in Bloemfontein to observe proceedings.
As heavy rain threatens to mar the ANC's mass rally to celebrate its 97th
anniversary in the party's all-important Eastern Cape heartland, its rival COPE
is holding a rally in Umlazi, KwaZulu Natal.
Today's launch and policy statement are intended to set the tone for a Zuma
presidency, with his name set to be formally confirmed as the ANC's presidential
candidate at next weekend's national list conference to decide the party's
nominations for the next parliament.
Despite all of this, ANC leaders were adamant that whatever Monday's outcome -
and the spectre of new charges *4
against their president - Zuma would lead the party's campaign and would become
president if the ANC won its fourth consecutive general election. The election,
likely to be held in April, will be its toughest battle yet.
Zuma's staunchest ally - the SA Communist Party, which helped to catapult him to
power - yesterday said "Zuma will become president, come rain or shine".
Even though party moderates could call for Zuma to step down if the appeal court
ruling goes against him, the SACP, Cosatu
and ANC hardliners will resist fiercely *5.
"Our stance has always been that it is a
political trial *6," said SACP spokesperson Malesela
Maleka.
ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe told the Saturday Star: "We are running
with our campaign. Zuma is the president of the ANC." He conceded, however, if
the appeal court ruled in favour of the NPA, they would "go
back to the drawing board *7".
"After Monday, Zuma will not have charges
against him, and will not be convicted *8. If they want to
charge him, the NPA will have to go back and formulate charges. Even if [the
appeal court] sets aside that judgment, it doesn't reinstate the charges. It
will only give the NPA an option to formulate new charges and recharge Zuma,"
Mantashe said.
However, NPA spokesperson Tlali Tlali disagreed. "The legal consequences would
be that Zuma remains charged," he said yesterday about a possible overturning of
Judge Nicholson's ruling.
"[This is] after discussions between Mr Zuma's counsel and the prosecution team,
and receiving assurances from counsel
that Mr Zuma would come to court on the
next court date *9 should the appeal court rule in favour
of the NPA," Tlali said.
Mantashe said the ANC would comply with the decision but would not keep quiet if
it was deemed unfair.
The ANC, under Zuma, has frequently clashed with the judiciary, with Mantashe
calling judges names - from
counter-revolutionaries to
apartheid apologists.
In its manifesto, to be unveiled by Zuma in East London today, the ANC is still
unhappy about the progress of transformation and the composition of the
judiciary.
The ANC has also clashed with the Constitutional Court's judges, and
specifically Deputy Chief Justice Dikgang Moseneke.
If the ANC wins the election and Zuma becomes president, he will have to appoint
a chief justice, as Pius Langa is expected to retire this year and a few other
Constitutional Court judges will also retire.
If parliament agrees with Motlanthe to fire prosecutions chief Vusi Pikoli - who
was the first to charge Zuma - the ANC leader, if he becomes president, will
also appoint the national director of public prosecutions. This is if Motlanthe
doesn't fill the post before the elections.
With acknowledgements to
Christelle Terreblanche, Moshoeshoe Monare, Karyn Maughan
and The Star.
*1*2Sure signs of
inside info.
*3Actually nobody likes losing, fullstop, especial Kemp J.
Kemp.
Losing in public is another thing.
Losing in front of the public broadcaster is another thing altogether.
*4Now this is interesting.
Are these new, new charges or just new charges?
*5What a bunch of losers.
*6That is the stance of losers.
All the evidence shows that it is a criminal trial.
*7A very good place to start, beginning with moral and
political values (there is a good first year philosophy course at UCT by the
same name - do it).
As the advert for Business Report quotes Henry Ford on the same webpage as this
article :"Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more
intelligently".
But can this bunch of dingbats still find anyone within their ranks intelligent
enough?
*8Beg to differ.
After Monday, Zuma will have validated charges against him and, unless Willie
Hofmeyer interferes with a plea bargain, he will be convicted.