It is unlikely that the Democratic Alliance’s court case over the National Prosecuting Authority’s decision to drop corruption charges against President Jacob Zuma will be finalised before the African National Congress’s elective conference in Mangaung this year

This means the extent to which this court case could affect the election battle at Mangaung depends on timing ­ the stage at which the litigation will be by December.

Despite having been launched in April 2009, the DA’s case is still in its early phases.

What the Supreme Court of Appeal will hear next month is not about whether to set aside the decision to drop corruption charges against Mr Zuma. Rather, next month’s hearing is a preliminary skirmish about whether the DA has the legal standing to bring the case to court in the first place and about access to the record of the NPA’s decision in February.

In a review application, obtaining the record of the decision ­ the on-paper reasons for why the decision was made ­ is only the first step of the process. This is what the case in the high court last year was all about. And it was thrown out because Judge Natvarlal Ranchod said the DA did not have a sufficient legal interest to litigate on this issue.

The actual substantive issue has not been argued yet ­ even in the high court.

Suppose the DA is successful in having the Supreme Court of Appeal overturn the high court judgment that the party did not have the legal standing to bring the case and orders that the DA must be provided with the record, there could still be an appeal on this preliminary issue.

An appeal to the Constitutional Court would mean a further delay, the length of which would depend on whether the Constitutional Court decides to hear an appeal or not. And even if the DA is successful all the way to the Constitutional Court, it would still have to go back to the high court to argue the actual case.

No doubt there will be an appeal one way or the other, to the Supreme Court of Appeal and then, most likely, to the Constitutional Court.

Knowing how long court processes take, by the time the ANC meets in Mangaung, the court process could still be languishing at the legal standing and record stage and therefore would be unlikely to trouble the ANC much.

On the other hand, it is also possible that, by December, the substantive case could have been heard by the high court. But it is highly unlikely that the almost inevitable appeals would have been determined by then.

Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi says that, in the bigger scheme of things, the court case could be little more than a side show at Mangaung ­ whatever point the litigation is at. He says that, after the ANC’s centenary celebrations in Bloemfontein earlier this month, he has the sense that there is growing unhappiness in the ranks of the ANC with Mr Zuma’s leadership.

If Mr Zuma loses the ANC presidency, it might have very little to do with the court case or even ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema’s reported campaign to unseat him, he says.

But if a court has pronounced on the merits, even if it is just a high court judgment, and the wind is blowing against Mr Zuma, his political opponents may use the case as ammunition against him.

But they then also risk being viewed as the "political lackeys" of the DA, says Mr Matshiqi. He says it is important to distinguish between Mr Zuma’s approval rating outside the ANC versus inside. "Those who love Jacob Zuma do so irrespective of what the DA says."

The DA’s own propaganda around the case could also play a part in how the case is viewed by ANC cadres, possibly causing them to rally round the president in the face of an attack by the opposition, he says.

With acknowledgements to Business Day.

Sigh.

A long way indeed.

At least we get the opportunity to kick another judicial arse along this weary way.

Like Mpshe, another deployee.