The South African Navy says it is ready to protect coastal FIFA soccer World Cup sites and will deploy a Valour-class frigate to help provide air defence for the Greenpoint stadium in Cape Town, the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban and the Nelson Mandela Bay stadium in Port Elizabeth.

The defence force is to spend R235 million protecting the soccer spectacular, in addition to the R600 million the police have budgeted.

The frigates will use their Thales Navale MRR 3D E/F-band search radars to assist the South African Air Force build up a comprehensive air picture over each stadium and its environs. The SAAF is tasked with maintaining a 50km “no-fly” zone around each stadium on match days. The ships can transmit their radar-pictures real-time to the Air Force Command Post in Pretoria or to Gripen fighters tasked with intercepting aircraft intruding into these areas using Link ZA *2.

Should it be required the ships can also use their weapons that include 76mm, 35mm and 20mm cannon and Denel Dynamics Umkhonto short-range infra-red surface-to-air guided missiles. The latter have a range of up to 12km from the ship. The 76mm cannon is effective to 8km and the twin-35mm cannons can range up to 6km in the surface role and 4km against aerial targets.

Navy Flag Officer Fleet, Rear Admiral Robert “Rusty” Higgs says the “reality is three of our stadiums that are very close to the sea … and as such we are very pleased the Navy can play a significant role in ensuring maritime security during the World Cup. The people of SA can depend on the national defence force and on the Navy.

“The potential threats the Cup faces from the sea are asymmetric, it is non-conventional. With modern technology people are able to do things they were unable to do in the past *4. And as such we are going to have a significant naval presence … that will allow us to detect threats below, on and above the sea, coordinating and working very closely with our air force.” Higgs added in an interview on SABC morning television that the Navy has spent the last two years preparing for the event.

Asked about threats facing the Cup, Higgs said “there are no indications [of any] at this stage, but reality is the seas are the 'plains of the world' and things can change very quickly and for that reason we must always be ready and always be prepared for any eventuality. It is important that we be at the top of our game.”

In that regard, Higgs also referred to Exercise Good Hope IV, now underway with the SAAF, as well as the German Navy and Air Force. “We are currently exercising with the German Navy … [in what is] the most complex of the exercises we take part in … exercising with the Germans at the highest level activity in which they take part in outside NATO allows us to sharpen our skills and to make sure we can operate all our equipment effective and efficiently to protect all South Africans.


FIFA to profit, SA to pay

Meanwhile, research by Citibank's research arm, Citi, suggests that event organiser FIFA will be the major beneficiary of the June 11-July 11 tourney while South Africa, the host nation "carries a disproportionate share of the cost burden".

Business Report newspaper today quotes Jean Francois Mercier, Citi's Johannesburg-based economist, as saying "FIFA is only responsible for prize money awarded to the participating teams, and compensation for their travel and preparation costs, which in Germany in 2006 only accounted for €222 million (R2.24 billion). By contrast, the main direct benefits of the event - television and marketing rights - accrue to FIFA, which also cashes in the proceeds from sales of VIP tickets. In the case of the 2006 World Cup in Germany, FIFA's profit amounted to about €1.4 billion, or 0.7 percent of South Africa's gross domestic  product (GDP) that year."

Citi adds assessments of economic benefits made after major sporting events are generally more downbeat than those made prior to the events.

The report also says auditing house Grant Thornton has revised downwards its forecast, made in 2008, that the event will draw 480 000 visitors. Study supervisor Gillian Saunders said yesterday she now estimated between 330 000 and 450 000 visitors. She says the 2008 research was conducted before the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which triggered a crisis in financial markets and a global recession.

With acknowledgements to Leon Engelbrecht and defenceWeb.

*1       It's just a pity that Thomson-CSF decided due to lack of funds to mount the search radar where it is partly obscured by the mast leaving a significant blind spot - exactly where any incoming bogey will tend to creep up one's rear end.


*2      With the data rate of Link ZA being what it is, it'll have to be a very unbusy air picture to be able to transmit it in real-time.

I would be surprised if a Gripen could receive this air picture in real-time or at all and even if it could what would it do about it?


*3      This is complete crap.

The Valour-class frigates have no area defence capability, only a point defence capability - that is to protect themselves. They could not even effectively protect a consort steaming 1,0 kiloyards away, let alone neutralise a target attacking a stadium 4,0 kiloyards away (like in Durban).

As for the 35 mm guns being of use at 4 km against an aerial target attacking another point, someone among us them been smoking something big and something strong and something surely illegal.

Even a novice air defence gunner or statistician will know that the effectiveness of a ballistic weapon is only marginal on a closing target and not against a crossing target and probably only marginally effective in the range of 500 metre to 2 000 metre.

It doesn't get much better for the 76 mm gun.

I personally would like to see a SA Navy frigate firing its 76 mm gun at a target 8 000 metre distant and which attacking a target 4 000 metre distant.

Some simplistic calculations illustrate :

If an incoming bandit is travelling at 700 km/h = 200 m/s from a point 8 000 metres distant to a target 4 000 metre distant it will cover the distance in 20 seconds. A 76 mm gun has a rate of fire of about 60 rounds per minute so it will be able to fire about 21 rounds in the time. Typically the single round hit probability for this type of ballistic weapon is about 2% to 4% round. So if one is ready to fire the moment the target comes into range then the cumulative probability of hit with 21 rounds is between 34% and 57%.

This is not good enough if the target is 10 000 humans beings.

But in the range of 8 000 metre to 4 000 metre the single round hit probability is probably much lower, maybe 0,5%, giving a cumulative probability of hit with 21 rounds of just 10%.

So this is a justification for a new Umkhonto surface-to-air missile, which can be used for naval surface combatants and for mobile army air defence systems, with extended range up to 30 km and single round hit probability for this type of guided weapon of about 90%.

Never say I don't have balanced views.

The only thing is now to re-awaken and rejuvenate Denel Dynamics, the late great Kentron North, to get this done and get it done without breaking the national piggy bank.

The only thing a ballistic weapon really does is keep a normal fighter pilot from concentrating on delivering his ordnance closely enough and straight enough. It does little for a kamikaze pilot seeking two and seventy virgins, especially if they know how to bob and weave a bit. And that's for a kamikaze attacking one's own ship  Attacking another ship 4,0 kiloyards away is a few yards too far. And attacking a two hectare stadium filled with 100 000 soccer nuts is another thing altogether.


*3      Greenpoint Stadium is quite close to the sea, say 1 000 metre, plus a ship would need to be say another 1 000 metre out to sea. This is close enough for surveillance, but not close enough for point defence.

When the US Navy conducts area defence it uses an anti-air missile SM3 with a range of > 500 km.

Even its close-in self-defense missile has a range of 20 km.

Its own medium range anti-air missile for outer self-defense or short range are defense has a range of 170 km.

The US Navy only use ballistic weapons for last ditch self-defence against leakers that penetrate through the missile defences in saturation attacks.

But that don't help one's consort none.

On a more technical note, if the 35 mm gun can actually keep track of its crossing aerial target using real-time position data from the tracking radar and stabilisation data from the inertial navigation system through Thales's combat management system and its Diacerto combat system data bus and system interface units, I'll eat 2 000 grams of escargot with 500 ml of fresh dairy cream and 250 grams of crushed garlic.

All followed by one wafer-thin mint.

There's only one way for a pauper to adequately protect from the surface an inland target like a sports stadium from air attack and that is surround it with shoulder-fired very short range anti-air missiles and a few off-vehicle-launched short range anti-air missiles.

So we now know the justification for GBADS - Soccer World Cup 2010 - with VSHORADS provided by Thales Air Defence of Belfast.


*4      Like hijacking four civil air airliners using stanley knives and direct two of them straight and level into two of the world's tallest buildings and another in the defence headquarters of the world's most powerful country.

If the virgin seekers intend having their way with us in SWC2010, then God help us.