Defence Review |
Publication |
INL |
Date | 2012-04-14 |
Reporter | Ivor Powell |
What the 2012 Defence Review envisages for the SANDF is the military equivalent
of retooling and customising a Brabant from the 1960s to turn it into a Ferrari.
If the Brabant in question is the SANDF in 2012 you might go further.
Think of the East German skedonk as having a cracked cylinder head and a seized
engine for starters.
In a 423 page report released this week the 14 person strong Defence Review
Committee - appointed by Defence and Military Veterans Minister Lindiwe Sisulu
in July 2011 - paints a picture of the South African military as
woefully underequipped, thoroughly dysfunctional, and misguided in its
priorities.
In the current frame:
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The above is not even to mention some of the more
dramatic cockups that have haunted the SANDF and raised questions over
competence levels in recent years - crashing a submarine; buying, at enormous
expense, batteries for the undersea vessels with design fault so serious they
constituted a safety threat; or destroying the command and control system of
another submarine by plugging the wrong wire into the wrong socket.
The Committee, first convened in July 2011, was chaired by FW De Klerk-era
Defence Minister, Roelf Meyer, later prominent in Codesa and the drafting of
South Africa's democratic constitution, with Umkhonto we Sizwe stalwart and
North West Premier Thandi Modise serving as deputy. The brains trust included
senior representatives from each of the military component services along with
Jane's Defence weekly correspondent Helmoed Heitmann,
and flamboyant former Defence Portfolio Committee chair Tony Yengeni.
Against this backdrop, the Committee started from the beginning - with the
SANDF's mandate as enshrined in the South African Constitution.
Key roles assigned to the military as the "sole legitimate military force" in
the country include: "the protection and defence of the Republic; its
sovereignty, territorial integrity, national interests and people", as
articulated by Minister Sisulu at a press briefing in Pretoria on Thursday this
week.
But this is only half the story. The other half lies arises from an analysis of
what the SANDF will expectably be called upon to do in the current continental
and geo-political context and in the coming thirty years - the time frame
assigned for the Committee's consideration.
And what becomes clear is the SANDF - underwritten by a 1998 Defence Review
Process thoroughly compromised by the murky politics of procurement in
government's notorious arms deal, and focusing more on the difficulties of
integrating former antagonists from the old SADF and the liberation armies into
a single fighting force, than on visionary geo-politics - will need a serious
overhaul at every level to meet the challenges identified.
Those highlighted include:
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An intensifying focus on South Africa's role as a major regional player in the
African continent. While the 1998 Defence Review - at the start of South
Africa's engagement in peacekeeping in Burundi - made provision for the
deployment of 1000 soldiers, in the intervening period the country has become
embroiled in eight conflict situations - including seemingly intractable
struggles in Somalia, Sudan and the Great Lakes region.
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With an air border of 7660 kilometres, a coastline 3924km long, and land borders
of 4471 km, South Africa remains vulnerable to not only conventional attack
(acknowledged as a remote possibility) but also to more real and insidious
threats like illegal immigration, smuggling and organized criminal activity, as
well as illegal weapons transfers.
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With warfare growing increasingly high tech, the report identifies a need for
proactive engagement with defensive technologies to secure computerized command
and control systems from the possibility of hacking to render them useless.
Balanced against this, the review prioritises the investing in the development
and acquisition of cutting-edge "smart weapons" like computerized attack drone
missiles.
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Against the backdrop of non-state actors like terrorist groupings having
increasing access to chemical and biological agents, the report argues that
defensive measures need urgently to be explored and developed if the SANDF's
mandate to protect South Africans is to be fulfilled.
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The rider here, as articulated in the report, is that in some cases such key
points fall outside of the borders of South Africa - for instance water sources
beyond the borders of South Africa, as well as the Mozambique Channel, which is
highlighted as being crucial to South Africa's status as a pre-eminently
sea-trading economy, and increasingly under threat from piracy.
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Against the backdrop of a National Conventional Arms Control Committee that has
all but ceased to function in recent years, the Defence Review proposes that
arms control be made the responsibility of a multi-party parliamentary committee
rather than the ministerial cluster of government currently tasked with
regulating the sale and transfer of matriel in South Africa. The report also
proposes that defence manufacturing by the state owned Denel as well as
private-sector manufacturers should be made more responsive to the actual needs
of the SANDF, and targeted to enhance its capacities. Responding to the Review,
DA Shadow Minister on Defence David Maynier said he welcomed Minister Sisulu's
moves to restructure and reporioritise the defence sector, but expressed concern
at the absence of detailed budgeting in the document produced by the Committee.
"Without a detailed and budgeted force design, the Review is more a green paper
than a usuable document, and unless there is a breakdown of how much it is going
to cost, the exercise is in danger of moving into the zone of fantasy" Maynier
said.
Styled as a Consultative Draft, the Committee's report will be available for
discussion and fine-tuning ahead of the Defence budget vote in May this year.
With acknowledgements to Ivor Powell and INL.
If the wish list mapped out in the 2012 Defence Review is to be realised, the
bill would probably dwarf the estimated R67 billion that the South African
government's strategic procurement package will cost the taxpayer by the end of
the decade.
But that, the review Committee argues, is just what it will cost to get the
SANDF optimally functional. How it is going to paid for, the Committee does not
say, leaving it to Cabinet to plot the way forward.
Among the materiel envisaged for acquisition is a warship or
"pocket aircraft carrier" capable of
launching helicopters and vertical take-off jets. Alleged plans to buy such a
vessel under the codename "Project Millennium" were reported in the Citizen
newspaper in January this year, but denied by Defence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu,
who described the project as "news to me".
In the defence Review however the absence of such a resource in the business of
securing the strategically crucial Mozambique Channel as well as continuing
anti-piracy operations off the east coast of Africa, is highlighted as an issue
to be addressed in rendering the South African military more effective and more
"agile".
A single warship with such capabilities would cost at lease twice as much as the
is estimated to cost between three and four times the R4 billion spent on the
Navy's four Corvettes.
Also high up on the shopping list is a batch of battle tanks to replace the
brigade of superannuated Olifant tanks currently in service. Originally part of
an SA Army order included in the arms deal of the late 1990s - which along with
over 100 such vehicles, also included air defence systems and around 150 other
armoured vehicles - the tanks purchase was, in the event, deferred in favour of
Air Force and Navy materiel. This has left the Army relying on main battle
equipment which, though refurbished, dates back to the 1950s.
So too, the Army has still to make do with a fleet of Samil heavy armoured
trucks that are barely more contemporary, and equally in need of upgrading - as
highlighted in the Defence Review.
Attention is also drawn to the fact that in the current situation, the Air Force
does not have the capacity to for in flight refuelling of its fighter planes -
dramatically reducing their potential effectiveness in operations beyond the
borders of South Africa.
With the implosion of the Airbus A400 M joint venture in 2010 - where South
Africa pulled out of a partnership with the European manufacturer and cancelled
orders for the aircraft, the SANDF continues to face a crisis on the air
transportation front. With only a superannuated Hercules fleet, anyway not equal
to the demands of peacekeeping operations in foreign lands, to call up, the
military is forced at the present time to rely on private contractors.
If the notional bill is getting scary, it gets worse. The Air Force's Gripen
Saabs were bought for R10 billion plus without the weaponry that would render
them militarily effective, and while at least two
were subsequently armed with air-to-air missiles ahead of the 2010 Football
world Cup, the majority still lack firepower - and the manufacturers have
threatened to void warranties if they are fitted out with locally manufactured
missiles or guns.
Current budgets will simply not stretch far enough to render the strike aircraft
more than decorative items to be used in fly past parades.
But perhaps the most striking index is to be gleaned from a discussion of Force
Design in the Committee's report. Here the optimal structure for the functioning
of the SA Army in a conflict situation is outlined as a synergy of three
divisions - one Mechanised, the second Motorised and the third designated as a
Contingency Brigade. The idea is that the first will deploy the heavy equipment
- tanks and mechanised infantry - the second backing up the first in armoured
cars and mechanised infantry formations, and the third providing rapidly
deployable air- borne and sea-landed troops to be sent in to mop up.
In the current frame however, the Review Committee acknowledges the remoteness
of such classic military force design and suggests that in the short term only
the Motorised Division be prioritised.
"Woefully underequipped,
thoroughly dysfunctional, and misguided".
From the 5th best fighting force in the world in 1989.
Those might have been the good, bad ole days in the 70s and 80s under PW and his
band of broeders, but it gave Ronnie Reagan the time to bring the evil empire to
its knees and not take us into the sorry mess that is Zimbabwe.